Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log

[unlucky513]

can you start posting each weeks picks in a new thread? going thru and looking at each post is a pain.

post a link to past weeks picks in the new thread. this would be much easier, and i'd be much more inclined to read your picks.

[sygamel]

I would, but I think the best way to view the picks is to go to my website. The thread at this point is more or less for audit and debate purposes (ie so that anyone can verify that I don't fudge my picks on the website after the fact.)

[kdog]

Click on the right hand side where it shows who posted last in the thread. That will take you to the end and you only have to scroll up one or two posts. Much easier.

That being said sy, this thread does consume a fair portion of the page. Maybe for the second half a new thread would be better.

[sygamel]

To be honest kdog, I wouldn't mind if the page went defunct and remained for audit space only...it's much easier to read wagers on my website.

[sygamel]

New Orleans/Saint Louis under 47 +100
$100.00 to win $100.00
10/19/05

Note: -107 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet at under 47. -126 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

[BaronVonCP]

[ QUOTE ]
Note: -107 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet at under 47. -126 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok i've seen you mention stuff like this before. I have no idea what you are saying. Mind explaining it? Why does units bet matter?

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Note: -107 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet at under 47. -126 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok i've seen you mention stuff like this before. I have no idea what you are saying. Mind explaining it? Why does units bet matter?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. Let's say heads has a 50/50 chance of occuring on a coin flip. One sportsbook has odds of Heads +122 (wager conversion price 45.04% = 100/(100 +122). The disparity between the event occuring and the price to wager that event is 50.00% - 45.04 = +4.96%. This is very nicely +EV, so let's call this a 1 unit bet. At another sportsbook you see odds of Heads +150. Wager conversion price here is 40% = 100/(100 +150). The (win minus wager) price disparity in this case is 50% - 40% = +10%. Using the earlier disparity as a model for a 1 unit bet, I would then double my bet here to 2 units. This isn't precisely the way it works in my system but the idea is very similar.

It's not that the event suddenly has a higher chance of occuring on a 2 unit bet game (in other situations it may), but in this case the lower wager price makes the bet all the more attractive and worth scaling the amount risked.

I'll respond tomorrow, I've finally hit the wall after a verrrry long day.

[BaronVonCP]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure. Let's say heads has a 50/50 chance of occuring on a coin flip. One sportsbook has odds of Heads +122 (wager conversion price 45.04% = 100/(100 +122). The disparity between the event occuring and the price to wager that event is 50.00% - 45.04 = +4.96%. This is very nicely +EV, so let's call this a 1 unit bet. At another sportsbook you see odds of Heads +150. Wager conversion price here is 40% = 100/(100 +150). The (win minus wager) price disparity in this case is 50% - 40% = +10%. Using the earlier disparity as a model for a 1 unit bet, I would then double my bet here to 2 units. This isn't precisely the way it works in my system but the idea is very similar.

It's not that the event suddenly has a higher chance of occuring on a 2 unit bet game (in other situations it may), but in this case the lower wager price makes the bet all the more attractive and worth scaling the amount risked.

I'll respond tomorrow, I've finally hit the wall after a verrrry long day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, i gotcha you are just betting more on higher EV situations.
I didn't catch that for some reason and thought that there was something weird going on that I didn't understand.

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sure. Let's say heads has a 50/50 chance of occuring on a coin flip. One sportsbook has odds of Heads +122 (wager conversion price 45.04% = 100/(100 +122). The disparity between the event occuring and the price to wager that event is 50.00% - 45.04 = +4.96%. This is very nicely +EV, so let's call this a 1 unit bet. At another sportsbook you see odds of Heads +150. Wager conversion price here is 40% = 100/(100 +150). The (win minus wager) price disparity in this case is 50% - 40% = +10%. Using the earlier disparity as a model for a 1 unit bet, I would then double my bet here to 2 units. This isn't precisely the way it works in my system but the idea is very similar.

It's not that the event suddenly has a higher chance of occuring on a 2 unit bet game (in other situations it may), but in this case the lower wager price makes the bet all the more attractive and worth scaling the amount risked.

I'll respond tomorrow, I've finally hit the wall after a verrrry long day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, i gotcha you are just betting more on higher EV situations.
I didn't catch that for some reason and thought that there was something weird going on that I didn't understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, as a last point, the bet I would make in each case is:

Heads +122 $40.98 to win $50.00
Heads +150 $66.67 to win $100.00

and not:

Heads +122 $50.00 to win $61.00
Heads +150 $100 to win $150.00

[sygamel]

Houston Texans to win +901.6
$27.73 to win $250.00
10/20/05

Note: +360 is the lowest number to play for a 5 unit bet on this game. +360 is not a typo -- +901.6 for this game is the largest (chance of winning - wager price) disparity the system has ever generated on a money line. Luckily, you only need bet roughly 3/5 of a unit at current odds to find out if it hits.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks