Week 1 CFB Notions

[SoloAJ]

I'm a sucker for parlays. Mostly becuase it allows me to feel connected to 5 games for the bet of 1. Sure I'll lose my bet, but I feel connected to 5 for the price of 1 unit instead of going with 5 units....and then there's the allure of the almighty win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Obviously I do this for recreation and to lose 1 or 2 units a week....that said:

5 team Parlay: NOTE: (Pays 25:1)
BC -11.5 v CMich
BC/CMich o42
Temple/Buffalo u43
SoCar/MissSt o40
UTep +2.5 v SDSt


I might get frisky since it is week 1 and bet a few things single later...but I'm leaving for now.

How much of an EV hit do I take by playing these parlays mostly?

[Freerollin`]

[ QUOTE ]
How much of an EV hit do I take by playing these parlays mostly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like 97% or so. Probably more.

[Avatar of Wine]

It looks like Toledo's up to +8.5 @ ISU - being in the state (but an Iowa fan, caveat emptor), I can tell you that ISU's defense is nearly brand-new . . . and the experience they do return is primarily up the middle. Toledo has a solid receiving corps, as well as a variety of RBs that might be able to test the edge of the ISU defense - I like taking the 8.5 here, and would love it at 9. The o/u at 55 might be exploitable too - both teams could score 35 here pretty easily, ISU's offense is pretty sick. Obviously you hate to play a game hoping for exactly 35-28, but I like this matchup.

[sfwusc]

EV.... none to very little

Variance goes way higher.

If you bet on one game and took the winnings, then bet all on game two. Basicly repeating this for 5 total games...it would pay the same.

The variance is going to be a lot higher than betting one unit on each of the 5 games, but EV wise no difference.

-SFWUSC

[SoloAJ]

[ QUOTE ]
EV.... none to very little

Variance goes way higher.

If you bet on one game and took the winnings, then bet all on game two. Basicly repeating this for 5 total games...it would pay the same.

The variance is going to be a lot higher than betting one unit on each of the 5 games, but EV wise no difference.

-SFWUSC

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good news for me then. It fits very well. I can take the EV hit and higher variance as long as I'm locked in for less money overall. Sure I would fare better not parlaying..but I hate having a week where I go like 0-6...

[SoloAJ]

Dear CMU,

Thanks for going for it on 4th and 8 on your own 40. That stuff helps my bet. Thanks.

Follow up edit, Thank you football for bouncing around perfectly for the BC guy to score a TD.

[MyTurn2Raise]

the chippewa coach, Brian Kelly, did a few really odd things in this game. The 4th and 8 was the dumbest thing I have seen in awhile. But, also putting in the 3rd qb, Brooks, when Lefevour was doing such a great job with 2nd and one at the BC 2 yard line was puzzling.

[pirateboy]

It's being reported Arkansas stud RB Darren McFadden could play on Saturday against USC. I think a 70-80% McFadden helps Arkansas A LOT, but how much? Enough to make +8 look better?

[SoloAJ]

Gmae has slowed down. My parlay is looking not slick with that 43 over in this BC/CMU game.....

Score some points already. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]