100NL weak set laydown?

[pokerman37]

So is this too weak? obviously i put him on aces here, do you think im right? my reasoning is that if he had kings or queens, most ppl would check behind on the turn here, and the villians stats are 20/6 after 150 hands, so to me it looks like a set of aces here.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($223.35)
Button ($50.56)
SB ($51.15)
BB ($240.71)
Hero ($148.10)
MP ($96.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $13</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $9.

Flop: ($27.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $18</font>, Hero calls $18.

Turn: ($63.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $45</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $108.50

[Fallen Hero]

AK is still a likely, AQ is also possible although not likely if villain doesn't 3bet lightly pf.

[pokerman37]

I find AK too be very unlikley, and AQ is impossible. Villian is quite passive pre-flop, and he doesnt view me as being out of line.

[Fallen Hero]

the numbers you gave aren't nearly good enough for you to say AK is very unlikely, it isn't.

[Isura]

Bad fold.

[MrWizard]

I think this is definately aces if the CO is a really tight passive player that only reraises with AA or KK. If he is loose and scrappy at all, then you probably should have called.

I like the fold here. You had a read on the player, and you trusted yourself. Good work.

I know many players that will never ever reraise with anything but AA or KK, this is an observation you have to make without pokertracker. If he is one of them I think you can be confident with your fold. Against just about anyone else this is a bad fold.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
I find AK too be very unlikley, and AQ is impossible. Villian is quite passive pre-flop, and he doesnt view me as being out of line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.

[Finite_Risk]

[ QUOTE ]
obviously i put him on aces here

[/ QUOTE ]

If that really is the case, why did you call preflop?

Given the check/call and then the check/bet, I'd say he has an ace...if he has aces, God bless him, but I'd hope for AK and check raise all in

[Finite_Risk]

If the ace on the flop were a king, would you weak tighties think he flopped a set of kings and fold?

20/6 is not good enough to make me think this is ONLY aces...and it's not close

[pokerman37]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

do u care to elaborate on ur answer?