Another Mansion free bet

[hemstock]

How do you calculate your ev in this situation when there is no risk and why is it better to let it ride than to hedge?

[catamite]

You're paying vig twice if you hedge

[MicroBob]

correct.
To use really basic round-numbers, it's going to be an all-or-nothing for +$1000 if you let it ride.
So your EV is exactly $500 (half the time you win $1000, the other half $0).

If you hedge then it's going to be a guaranteed +$490 or something.
And this is because you have to pay some juice on that 2nd bet.


I'm thinking of going half-way on it and just hedging MIA part-way.

Something like +$700 if PIT wins but still get +$300 if MIA wins.

[chigger]

I think I might do a mini hedge on this. Just enough that I get at least $200. This way I can still root for Pitt and big $. But I won't walk away empty handed. I didn't hedge the Tottenham bet and kind of wished I had.

Is this a dumb idea?

[hemstock]

But it's not really a coin toss. It's a sports event and the way the teams play on that day will determine the actual propabilities. You can't count the cards to determine your EV. Depending on how the teams play on the field it might be 70-30 in favor of Miami, or the other way around. These lines are just estimations by the books. To someone who is not involved in sports betting wouldn't it be stupid not to hedge this?

[2461Badugi]

[ QUOTE ]
To someone who is not involved in sports betting wouldn't it be stupid not to hedge this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hedging seems like one more way to potentially make a mistake. If I decide to go for this, I doubt I'll hedge it, since I'd have to find another book, shop odds, and implement the hedge bet correctly. That's a lot of work (and possiblities for error) just to buy some variance reduction.

ETA: On the other hand, the more people who hedge, the more likely Mansion is to keep doing this sort of thing.

[hemstock]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To someone who is not involved in sports betting wouldn't it be stupid not to hedge this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hedging seems like one more way to potentially make a mistake. If I decide to go for this, I doubt I'll hedge it, since I'd have to find another book, shop odds, and implement the hedge bet correctly. That's a lot of work (and possiblities for error) just to buy some variance reduction.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would take you at most an hour

[scorer]

mansion reserves the right to withdraw or amend this offer at any time, amend, this is a little concerning to me. For people who have dealt with mansion before how many times have they done this refund guarantee in the past and what were the bet amount. Thanks

[robert4444]

I think this is too risky, what do they get for doing such offer?

[scorer]

From what i know of mansion, they have offered this before and paid off when teams lost. But the last bet they refunded was something like 180 dollars. This refund if it lost would be 1100 dollars. Unless im wrong, i have never heard of anything close to this being done in any sportsbook or poker account or even casino. Even casino's that offer a free bonus have a wagering requirement. Perhaps they will change the promtion that it has to be roled over, i don't know. But something doesn't seem right here,