Another Mansion free bet

[thomasperfecto]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to go to a different book or they will not refund you shabun.

Also anyone who hasn't signed up for Mansion and wants an extra $90 kickback I have an affiliate who if you sign up through and place a minimum $50 sportsbet (Which this one would count towards) you get the $90 in Neteller or Paypal. PM for details.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you get 900 points and then have to earn an additional 100 points before getting a $100 voucher?

[AnthonyH]

so to make things perfectly clear, the point spread means that if Pittsburgh wins by 5 points or more, we will win $1,000?

[CharlieDontSurf]

well if the line is pitt -5 then no...they have to win by more than 5 for u to win yr bet

[MicroBob]

correct.

if Pittsburgh wins by exactly 5 then the bet is a 'push' (sports-bet lingo for a 'tie') and you will get refunded your money.
A 5 point win would be a refund if they were doing the promo or not.

If PIT wins by only 4 then you lose the bet (but Mansion gives you the refund of course...and if you bet on Miami on a different site then you won that bet).


Basically, 'PIT -5' means that you take the final score and THEN you subtract 5 points from Pittsburgh's total (or add 5 points to Miami's total).

So if PIT wins 25-20 then after you take away the 5 point handicap you are left with a 20-20 tie and then ALL bets on this game would be refunded.



The problem with hedging right now is that many sites have MIA at only +4.5.
So if you bet PIT at -5 on Mansion and then bet MIA at +4.5 on a different site then you actually DO have some risk involved in the weird event that PIT wins by EXACTLY 5.
If this were to happen, then you would only get refunded the bet on PIT (but wouldn't win anything) and would lose the bet on Miami.


By the way guys, lots of people are acting like I'm a big expert on this.
I know a little about sports-betting but not very much honestly.

There's also a thread about this in the sports-betting forum on 2+2 which is where some really sharp sports-bettors hang out. They are more familiar with Mansion and their reliability as a sports-betting site (they rate it highly) and would have a better idea of whether Mansion could actually move this line before the game (which I think is unlikely, but I really don't know much about these things, and i think we are kind of in unchartered territory with this promo anyway).

[hemstock]

How do you calculate your ev in this situation when there is no risk and why is it better to let it ride than to hedge?

[catamite]

You're paying vig twice if you hedge

[MicroBob]

correct.
To use really basic round-numbers, it's going to be an all-or-nothing for +$1000 if you let it ride.
So your EV is exactly $500 (half the time you win $1000, the other half $0).

If you hedge then it's going to be a guaranteed +$490 or something.
And this is because you have to pay some juice on that 2nd bet.


I'm thinking of going half-way on it and just hedging MIA part-way.

Something like +$700 if PIT wins but still get +$300 if MIA wins.

[chigger]

I think I might do a mini hedge on this. Just enough that I get at least $200. This way I can still root for Pitt and big $. But I won't walk away empty handed. I didn't hedge the Tottenham bet and kind of wished I had.

Is this a dumb idea?