Another Mansion free bet

[brendanb438]

Sounds to me that if the line changes then they can end the promotion right then and there.

-Brendan

[Peace]

I just made the bet and interestingly enough I had the option to make it 4.5

The live operator said I would make less with this wager. I asked how much less?

He didn't answer the question - he paused, told me I'd make more on the 5 line, but steered me away from the 4.5 bet, which obviously would have been much better and would guarantee the hedge bet, but I didn't push it and took the free bet with the line at 5.

[SoloAJ]

[ QUOTE ]

He didn't answer the question - he paused, told me I'd make more on the 5 line, but steered me away from the 4.5 bet, which obviously would have been much better and would guarantee the hedge bet, but I didn't push it and took the free bet with the line at 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure the 4.5 line isn't free. But I'm not TOTALLY sure.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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He didn't answer the question - he paused, told me I'd make more on the 5 line, but steered me away from the 4.5 bet, which obviously would have been much better and would guarantee the hedge bet, but I didn't push it and took the free bet with the line at 5.


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I'm pretty sure the 4.5 line isn't free. But I'm not TOTALLY sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't free. You will have to lay higher odds to get the bet at -4.5. Probably in the -118 to -121/100 range. It also doesn't meet the promotional requirements of placing a minimum of $1100 on Pittsburgh -5.

[Little_Luck]

Mansion throw this promo out there, gets everyone to cover at the other books and drive this thing down to -3 to -3.5. Mansion turns around and bets the house at the other books on Pitt -3, buys the half point, Pitt wins by 3.

or not...

[brendanb438]

I hedged my bet at Pinny on Miami +5 -125. The line was at -115 for +5 3 days ago so hedge this now, it looks like the line is moving in Miami's favor, it is tough to guess if enough public money will come in over the next 10 days to sway this the other way for a middle opportunity.

I layed $525 to win $420 if Miami wins and if Pitt wins I will get $475. I want to see Pitt win but honestly Big Ben is the question mark so we will see what happens.

-Brendan

[brendanb438]

Little Luck that would be some funny shiat. I actually would love to see that happen and Mansion make like 10,000 new customers and come out like $5 Million ahead.

[Little_Luck]

I feel pressure is on the big legit books to move this line a little south since all these cover bets are coming in. I am going to go ahead and wait until the rest of the market balances this thing out, I would rather freeroll than pay -125, I'm giving away too much EV then.

[SoloAJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I am going to go ahead and wait until the rest of the market balances this thing out, I would rather freeroll than pay -125, I'm giving away too much EV then.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I'm doing as well. I don't feel like buying down too big, and besides...it takes the decision out of it for me. This way I just try to get the gusto and win $965 (after my instacash fee)

[E.Z.]

[ QUOTE ]
I hedged my bet at Pinny on Miami +5 -125. The line was at -115 for +5 3 days ago so hedge this now, it looks like the line is moving in Miami's favor, it is tough to guess if enough public money will come in over the next 10 days to sway this the other way for a middle opportunity.

I layed $525 to win $420 if Miami wins and if Pitt wins I will get $475. I want to see Pitt win but honestly Big Ben is the question mark so we will see what happens.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

if this was a monday night game i would say it would prob move up to 6. people bet all weekend and usually the last game gets lots of action on the favorite.

but this is the 1st game. smaller book aren't getting all this hedge action and we are talking about the SB champs at home. i wouldn't be shocked if it still ends at 5-6 by game time.