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#1
10-13-2005, 07:07 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)). [/ QUOTE ] its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back. while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run. again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market. [/ QUOTE ] More ridiculousness. If thats the case, we should all bet our entire bankroll on the under. 
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#3
10-13-2005, 08:12 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
clearly, you have NO idea what you are talking about. [/ QUOTE ] Sir, if his system tells him that the game will go over 35 53% of the time (assuming -110), then the VALUE is NOT gone. You play by strict rules. Fine. But don't generalize so much because its misleading.
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#6
10-13-2005, 08:09 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
He said the value was gone, not the possibility of winning. A huge diff. [/ QUOTE ] If the value is gone on one side, it must all be on the other (n/i vig).
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#7
10-13-2005, 08:13 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He said the value was gone, not the possibility of winning. A huge diff. [/ QUOTE ] If the value is gone on one side, it must all be on the other (n/i vig). [/ QUOTE ] How so? Value isn't a zero-sum game--it can go up and down and vanish completely depending on the game/line. If there was 20 cents of value on over 33.5, and the line moves to 35, the under doesn't automatically have 20 cents of value. I don't understand how it ALL goes to the other side.
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#8
10-13-2005, 08:22 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] He said the value was gone, not the possibility of winning. A huge diff. [/ QUOTE ] If the value is gone on one side, it must all be on the other (n/i vig). [/ QUOTE ] How so? Value isn't a zero-sum game--it can go up and down and vanish completely depending on the game/line. If there was 20 cents of value on over 33.5, and the line moves to 35, the under doesn't automatically have 20 cents of value. I don't understand how it ALL goes to the other side. [/ QUOTE ] Whip, I'm not sure I understand you exactly, but I think you're sort of making my point. That is, he made an affirmative statement that there no longer is ANY value at 35 because it went to 35. That makes no sense. If there was NO value at 35, bet the under and buy the 1/2 pt. Pretty simple I think.
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#10
10-13-2005, 08:32 PM
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Re: Week 6, post 8 (ii)
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I think your fundamental assumption is that every line has value on one side or the other, which I refuse to accept. If 35 is a perfectly fair number, there would be no value on either side. [/ QUOTE ] yes you are correct....and my statement was really not accurate and was a sloppy way of making my point. but my point, later clarified I hope, was correct.
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