2/4 QTo against 1 limper

[James.]

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Stastically, the average hand is Q7. He plays half the hands, so that means he's playing any hand better than Q7. Sure, he could have a lot of connecter type hands or suited types of hands that you are ahead of, but even those hands are only a 3:2 underdog in most cases. He also could have a pair, any ace, or any king, all of which are ahead of you. Your hand is not much better than his range if it's better at all. I stand by my statement that raising here is a bad idea. I limp here and then after the Q hits I am going to bleed him as much as I can.

If someone has PokerStove in front of them (I'm at work), I'd love to see what sort of equity QT has against his range. I'm betting it's break even at best.

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i think i would ask what sample size we have if i was really going to try to analyze this guy. also, different donks have different relative values that they assign to different hands. some love all suited hands, some will play any ace, some love connectors or pp's; the type of donk will vary. i am not arguing with you because i have certain thoughts on limping being the better play at a higher limit or with more "thinking" opponents, but we certainly don't need to assign a range to him based on how we ascertain hand value, as his system is likely different. it could be based on anything from his results-oriented past to what he sees on TV to what his lucky number may be. my point is, his 50% may not be the top spectrum of hand values and either way with position QTo fares well against his range and regardless is not a huge dog before the flop. also, any dead money from the blinds(which is my bigger issue with raising since they are often coming along REALLY bloating the pot)if they fold would give us some overlay. and we usually get a free card on the flop.