Set pushes the turn on a very scary board.

[Pokey]

To those who are advocating a smaller bet:

What smaller hands call a half-pot bet that fold to a pot-sized all-in bet? I think the added $40 from a called push more than makes up for the few extra folds this play earns. I'd prefer to get the money in while he's still got hope for a lucky river card, rather than waiting to let him see that he's iced before I try to get the cash.

Plus, I'm hoping that my aggressive win-before-the-flop betting style has planted just enough suspicion in his head to warrant a call by a hand that I'm clobbering.

I hear what you're all saying, but I'm vividly reminded of NLHTAP's numerous discussions of small value bets versus large value bets, and the EV calculations. Unless this overbet reduces the probability that villain calls by a TON, it's the better choice. This is especially true since almost 20% of the deck counterfeits my hand if I'm ahead, meaning that scooping the pot right now is not the worst thing that could happen.

Example: assume villain has QQ. If villain calls, I win 77.3% of the time at showdown, and tie 9.1% of the time. Say that villain calls 50% of the time when I make a small value bet of $30. My EV from this play:

EV = 0.5*(+$66) + 0.5*(0.7727*(+$96) + 0.0455*(-$30) + 0.1818*(+$33)) = +$73.91

Now, say that villain calls a $74 push with probability C:

EV = (1-C)*(66) + C*(0.7727*(140) + 0.0455*(-74) + 0.1818*(+$33))

This gives the same EV as the smaller value bet when C = 17.7%! So long as villain doesn't reduce his calling probability from 50% down to below 18%, we're better off pushing.

Why do we get such a surprising result? Because our hand is still reasonably fragile, and there's a BUNCH of dead money in the middle. At this point in the hand, having villain fold isn't a bad thing, even against a hand as badly beaten as QQ. If he's calling, I need to make sure it's a BIG mistake for him, and with as much dead money as there already is in the middle, that requires a good-sized bet. Note that with as much dead money as is already in the pot, I'm not even making much of a mistake in pushing against a made straight: my full house outs make this a roughly break-even play.

The large pot and the numerous cards that kill my hand make pushing here a good thing, even if villain folds almost always. The more I think about this problem, the more I think a smaller bet, even if it gets called extremely frequently, would be a mistake.

EDIT: math is hard.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]


At this point in the hand, having villain fold isn't a bad thing, even against a hand as badly beaten as QQ....Note that with as much dead money as is already in the pot, I'm not even making much of a mistake in pushing against a made straight: my full house outs make this a roughly break-even play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Get off the pipe, son.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


At this point in the hand, having villain fold isn't a bad thing, even against a hand as badly beaten as QQ....Note that with as much dead money as is already in the pot, I'm not even making much of a mistake in pushing against a made straight: my full house outs make this a roughly break-even play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Get off the pipe, son.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine, I'm about 3.3-to-1 against versus the straights. Whoopee. If villain pushes this turn instead of me, I'm almost right to call even if I know he's got a straight. That's all I meant. It came out of my mouth all hinky, that's all. The point is that the dead money REALLY buffers this pot, and if he folds, I'm not unhappy.

[aces_dad]

Hands like AK will fold regardless of bet size (and I discount a solid player cbetting into 3 w AK here).

I think if you can get J's or Q's to call 2/3pot here he'll make a crying call getting great odds on almost all rivers here.

I think I'd like the overpush more on the river, but few can lay down the river getting such great odds, if you price them in on the turn.

[Dan Bitel]

Pokey,

1) I push flop

2) I check turn.

Push flop for FE vs a "good player" as well as having 10 outs if he has AA/KK and calls. Also, all 10 of your outs are obvious, and I doubt a good player pays you off if you hit.

Check turn b/c I don't see a single worse hand paying you off, while your "weakness" on the turn could induce a river bet

[aces_dad]

HU I think we push the flop but I think he's hoping for a flop overcall from one of the muppets.

I do think the bet size is little big to hope for overcalls on the flop though.

[Fly]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokey,

1) I push flop

2) I check turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

ding, ding! we have a winner.

[gd_river]

i do like the line of pushing flop/checking turn if pokey was playing tight but he mentioned he was playing very laggy so since he didn't push the flop don't you think a guy with AA/KK could get frustrated and take a stand, this could look like a float to villian b/c of how he has been playing this session.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

1) I push flop


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't want to give up the overcalls. With two idiots remaining to act, including one who is dangerously short, I wanted all the padding I could get.

[ QUOTE ]

2) I check turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

And then what do I do when the river comes as an A, K, Q, J, T, 5, or club and villain open-pushes? These cards are going to hit 59% of the time, so I'm less than even money to get a "safe" card. If the advice is to open-fold these cards, that seems horrifically weak-tight. If the advice is to call them all, that seems like spewing. The reverse-implied odds on this hand are horrible if I've got much money behind, so I take that out of the equation entirely.

Nobody would advocate slowplaying a set on a dangerous flop; why slowplay a set on a dangerous turn? The point is that while I'd like a call, I'm not unhappy with a fold. The only thing that would make me unhappy in this hand is having to face a difficult river decision, which will happen about half of the time if I check here.

Why should I risk making a FTOP mistake when I can give villain a chance to make one instead?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

2) I check turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

And then what do I do when the river comes as an A, K, Q, J, T, 5, or club and villain open-pushes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I've been thinking of this hand while out on a few errands. First off, your flop play is a little sketchy. Main villian just flipped up his cards and declared he has a big pp. Sometimes, one of the other players in the hand just flopped a set or straight or two pair or whatever and c/r push and all of a sudden you are investing alot of $$$ when way behind.

You make an implied odds flop call, but if you don't get any more money in on the turn and river after you hit, your flop play is -EV. Because of the coordination of the board, it might be difficult to get any more money out of villian, and so we are having this turn discussion.

"As played: check turn"...You need to take the clubs out of your worries above. A club would actually be a good card for you. We are pretty sure that villian has a pp, so he won't river a flush. If you check turn, basically you are saying you don't have a straight. If a club does come, he checks, you push, it looks alot like you are bluffing a flush and so that's not horrible. A 5 would suck. A Ten ain't so bad unless he has JJ. You can push on the end with some FE.

The bad cards of A and K: These kinda suck if you check. If he has KK or QQ, these might scare him away on the end. So, in conclusion, IDK. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I like a small bet or a check. A check is going to at least double the number of times you are called on a river push