Thoughts on application of EV

[jsthomas64]

I am fairly new to Hold 'em, I've been playing for about 9 months (mostly on-line because I live in Ohio, where gambling is illegal - except for the morally superior lottery and racetracks of course). I would like to hear people's thoughts on how they apply EV in their games.
When I started playing, I played a lot more hands and probably played more aggressively, and was actually ahead over 5-6 months, though granted only like 15%. Then the more I read poker books and learved about EV I feel like I've been playing more tightly and probably bowing out of pots I could be winning, and flat out not ending sessions ahead, especially at lower limit (never above $5/$10) on-line games where play seems to be tremendously erratic, bad beats are handed out like Halloween candy and I don't seem to play against the same people enough to get a solid read on their play.

Any and all thoughts on the application of EV in your overall poker repetoire or critiques on my play would be appreciated. How do players on the forum balance EV with bluffing, playing against bullies, etc. It seems obvious that if you played to the EV all the time you'd miss out on a lot of draw hands, though arguably you'd also not bet into draw hands that don't pan out.

I do realize I need to play a TON more hands to get the experience, so thank you for that advice, but I know that part already)

[knife420]

i think you have just started to incorectly tighten your play, if you fold to much u can't beat lower limit, EV with bluffing: if this bluff wins me the pot more often than the pot odds dictate its positive EV(if he will fold i don't consider how bad off i am when called) bullies: i can play hands more profitably against a donk Draws: it is seldom wrong to draw when pot/implied odds are correct. your poker education should allow you to tighten up or loosen depending upon style, not instill fear in you if you were doing well playing loose and aggressive continue to push the action

[AaronBrown]

Expected value is only as good as the assumptions that underlie it. It's a very reliable guide when your hand depends on what cards will be dealt, it can be treacherous when you hand depends on what other players hold.

For example, if you have a flush draw on the river, there are 9 of 46 cards that will make your flush. But 2 of the 9 (in most cases) will also pair the board and maybe fill a full house; or maybe someone else has a higher flush draw. You also don't know if a bet will be called on the river if you fill your flush.

Another issue is this decision leaves out the chance that someone else is bluffing and will fold even to your missed flush, or that you can win by bluffing if you don't fill. It doesn't consider the effect of your actions now on future hands. And this is the clearest situation for EV, on the river with a drawing hand. Figuring EV preflop with AJ offsuit is even more slippery.

Still, EV is an essential concept for discipline. There's so much randomness in poker that you have to concentrate on EV. If you make a series of 10 even money bets with 60% chances of winning, you have to be happy with your play, even if you lose money (as you often will). If you make a 40% even money bet and win, you have to change your play. If you ignore EV, you'll end up overreacting to the randomness, and making too many decisions based on fear and greed.

[jsthomas64]

Thanks! That probably answers my question as best as it can be answered