how do you like this river fold?

[chesspain]

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I just don't see that happening. Even if you're 95% sure you're beat, even then, it's not a big mistake to call. It doesn't cost you that much, only a tiny fraction of a bet.

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Yes, it is a mistake to call a 9:1 bet if you believe you are a 1 in 20 dog. Of course, it's probably not a big mistake, since calling or folding wrong on the end in one specific pot is rarely a big mistake. But the mistakes will add up over time on one's bankroll.



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And come on, can you honestly be 95% sure here? Can you ever be?)

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One can never be sure of anything. However, always calling when the pot is offering at least 9:1 because "one never knows" is a pretty big leak.

[crunchy1]

jjacky,

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77/0/0,4 WTS 45 0,8 Riveraggro; unknown number of hands

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With this read - I'm viewing the player as unknown. I'm never folding an overpair to an unknown on the river, HU, for only one BB. Especially on a scare card that's very likely to be a bluff.

Sometimes you just have to pay it off. I think you'd be surprised at how often you're going to win these pots at the lower limits.

[jjacky]

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jjacky,

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77/0/0,4 WTS 45 0,8 Riveraggro; unknown number of hands

[/ QUOTE ]

With this read - I'm viewing the player as unknown. I'm never folding an overpair to an unknown on the river, HU, for only one BB. Especially on a scare card that's very likely to be a bluff.

Sometimes you just have to pay it off. I think you'd be surprised at how often you're going to win these pots at the lower limits.

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hi crunchy,

i have not played the hand. the information is from another forum, with the number of hands missing. i assume that the sample size is not very big but should still have some weight (whatever that means [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

to your advice: i think so too and hoped to read something like that. laying down big hands in heads up situations with a big pot for one bet on the river shouldn't be proper strategy in limit hold'em.

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, it is a mistake to call a 9:1 bet if you believe you are a 1 in 20 dog. Of course, it's probably not a big mistake, since calling or folding wrong on the end in one specific pot is rarely a big mistake. But the mistakes will add up over time on one's bankroll.

One can never be sure of anything. However, always calling when the pot is offering at least 9:1 because "one never knows" is a pretty big leak.

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Ok, maybe I was exagerating there. But you do agree this is a clear call right? Also, there's a big difference between being 80, 90 or 95 percent sure, and people just can't guess that well. 10% combined for the chance he is either pure bluffing, or is making a play on a top pair of queens? I'm willing to take that chance.