$55r How would you play AK in the Money

[slik]

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Here is an ICM calculation.

Suppose Villian is raising 20% and is calling my push with the top 10%.

My equity when I double up .4265.

My equity when he folds to the push is.3692.

I win 57% of the time when called.

So I'm getting

(1/2)*(0.57*0.4265+0.43*0.2)+(1/2)*0.3692= .349

My equity before the hand was .346.

Hmmm, it's close. I pushed at the time but am still wondering if a call would have been more profitable given my read of a tight short stack.

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Given these assumptions, it's a clear fold. Intuitively, I would have pushed, too, in that position.

your equity if you fold is 0.337

Given that he raised, if you push he will fold half the time, making your equity (0.5 * 0.57 * .426) + (0.5 * 0.369) = 0.306 < 0.337

[speedyg]

I think you left out the .2 equity when he calls and you lose (from having already locked up 3rd place). With that correction

.349 (pushing) > .337 (folding)