2nd best pair top kicker and BDSD - whats your action?

[rjacobs003]

Reviewing yesterday's session and came across a hand which looked something like this. Whats the thoughts on the play here.

A limps UTG
B limps A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 fold
C raises
4 folds
A calls
B calls

Flop comes: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.5SB)

A bets
B ????

No reads....
wasn't involved in this hand but its an area I sometimes push too hard in so appreciate any thoughts on what the play here is and why.

[Bruce D]

To me a read is necessary to call any action correct or not. With no reads I can get a fold here. Do we know that the C player is not going to raise it up? I don't mind calling this down for a showdown HU, but this is three way action with a player left behind to act. Its a raise or fold situation and I think folding is slightly better than raising. If I did raise it (I would raise to try to get C to fold a better hand and to reduce the odds if he has a hand like AQ or AJ) and C folded, and it was then called then checked by A, I would then check the turn and check /call the river.

If I raised and it gets reraised behind me, I really hate my hand and will debate between a call and a fold. If it is 2 to me, I fold as fast as I can. If its is called by both parties, I feel lost now and hate the decisions I have to make.

The pot is not large enough for me to try to win it right here. I have to be right more than 1 in seven times right now to profit. But I will rarely fold both players so I will have to spend another bet to on the next street to try to win this pot again. So I will spend 2 to win 8 or 1 to win 4. Will I win this 1 in 4 times... from my current position before the turn? Those are my effective odds if I don't want to spend anythin past the turn. I really don't see us winning this 1 in 4 times.

[kerowo]

What has C been raising with? If he raises light I might go for the c/r figuring I'm most likely ahead and have him reverse dominated for most of the ace high hands he could have. If his pfr is tight I c/f.

[Fantam]

Suggested Play
I would have been inclined to raise preflop in an attempt to isolate the UTG limper.

As played, I would fold the flop. I expect that you are behind UTG and that you would need to improve your hand to win.

There is also the possibility that if you call the flop bet, that the pf raiser will raise, which would worsen your pot odds and chances of winning.

Estimating Your Outs
To estimate your outs, you need to consider the hand ranges for your opponents.

Lets say that UTG has Kx (excluding AK). With the exception of KT and K6, you have 5 outs against most of this range. So with your bdsd, lets round up your outs against UTG to 5.

Lets say that the pf raiser has a range of AA-TT,AK & AQ. The total number of possible combinations for him to have these hands are 40.

Next calculate your outs against this range of hands and multiply by the number of possible combinations for each hand:

So AA = 3 comb. * 2 outs = 6. KK = (3*0) = 0. QQ = (6*5) = 30. JJ = (6*5) = 30. TT = (1*0) = 0. AK = (9*2) = 18. AQ = (12*5) = 60.

Add the above numbers, and divide by the number of hand combinations for this range, to get a weighted average for your outs:

Weighted average = (6+0+30+30+0+18+60)/40 = 144/40 = 3.6 outs.

Add say 0.5 outs for your bdsd and you have approx. 4 outs against the pf raiser.

As you have 2 opponents, its probably fair to estimate that you have no more than 4 outs against both of them.

Compare your 4 outs to the immediate pot odds that you are being offered to call on the flop of 8.5:1, and you dont have enough outs to call.

If you call and the pot is raised behind you by the preflop raiser the odds you are effectively receiving to call both bets (assuming UTG also calls) becomes: 11.5 to 2 or 5.75 to 1. Now calling becomes even worse.

Obviously you dont have time to do the above calculations, while you are playing, but that is roughly how I would do the maths.

If you also plugged estimated hand ranges into Poker Stove for both your opponents, I would expect you to come up with similar results.

[kerowo]

[ QUOTE ]
What has C been raising with? If he raises light I might go for the c/r figuring I'm most likely ahead and have him reverse dominated for most of the ace high hands he could have. If his pfr is tight I c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, no c/r possible, without a good read on A I'm folding.

[Ricks]

I guesss that I am the only one folding this pf. I want to be at least in MP before I play this, even with a limper.

[TBone]

ATo is usually a fold for me in this situation as well.

Given the action, I'm folding. Second pair is not that great in this situation. BDSD are never good unless you're all in on the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Someone is betting into the preflop raiser, you have no idea if preflop is going to re-raise.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have been inclined to raise preflop in an attempt to isolate the UTG limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because iso-raises against players you have no reads on with hands that don't play well short-handed are just the SHIZNIT!