Math question on betting the NFC

[gonores]

Anyone want to verify me on this?

I just bought Seattle (+289) and Carolina (+454) to win the superbowl. I risked $100 on Sea and $64 on Car (or in that ratio anyways)...basically, a $290 payoff on either bet.

According to the moneyline on Pinny, the no-juice ML on the NFC championship game is +175. This translates to a Carolina win 37% of the time and a Seattle win 63% of the time, right?

So I have a bet that will have a potential payout of total of $354 37% of the time and a potential total payout of $390 63% of the time, I think.

This translates to a total average payout of $376 if the NFC wins the SB.

So I'm paying out $164 for a profit of $212.

212/164 ~= 1.3

So I basically have the NFC to win the SB at +130. Or so I think.

Am I close?

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
So I'm paying out $164 for a profit of $212.

212/164 ~= 1.3

So I basically have the NFC to win the SB at +130. Or so I think.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is about right, but I don't understand why you would bet it that way. Why not just bet NFC +3.5 or wait for the ML next week? You should be able to get better than +130 next week.

[gonores]

Yeah, I'm not too bright when it comes to sports betting.

I happened to make a bet on Seattle last night and today I decided I wanted to put a bet on Carolina too. Then I decided I wanted to do a fun math problem, so I put .64x of my seattle bet on Carolina.

Basically, +130 translates to maybe a +2 or +2.5 spread, right?