LC: Hypothetical dilemma.

[FeNeF]

I'm having a bit of an argument with a fellow 2+2er here, and I'd like to get some more opinions.

You're at the beginning of a regular 50/30/20 SnG, and a magical genie approaches you. He offers you a deal. X% of the time, you will double your chip stack and another player chosen at random gets eliminated, and the rest of the time you are eliminated.

How large does X have to be for you to accept the deal?

[ryanghall]

I'm gonna take a stab and say 55%? I'm probably wrong though. Maybe a bit higher? It's definitely higher than 50, I can tell you that.

Ryan

[TheBeloved]

Isn't this the same as the old "should I take a coin flip early ?" dilemma.

[suzzer99]

disclaimer: nothing but WAGs to follow

$109 non-turbo, if I'm 1-tabling, I'd say 60%. Maybe even higher if I thought about it. I don't play non-turbos anymore for exaxtly this reason, they require too much attention while 8-tabling.

$60 or $114 turbo I'd say 55% sounds about right. 1-2% less on the $114.

[bjb23]

starting ev== 0.1

double up ev == .1844

eliminated ev == 0

x(0.1844) + (1-x)0= 0.1
x= 0.54

==> need to double more than 54% of the time to be worth it

edit: unless the point of your post was to consider other non-icm related factors, in which case things become a lot more complicated.

[Aleo]

This is actually more complicated than many assume and I believe has been discussed at some length on this forum in the past.

I'll try to find the thread. Hopefully someone else beats me to it.

As far as my personal feeling, from a strictly naive mathematical perspective, it's 1.844 as opposed to 1 ev with the double up, so you'd need

1.844*.545>1

or about 54.5% to be on the edge of profitable

Where it gets more complicated is the fact that your average time/tourney goes down by a lot if you could do this all the time (which in a way you can) and for some (especially skilled big stack players) X might be less than the math alone indicates.

But not a lot less

I may be wrong. Very quick guess

Regards
Brad S

[FeNeF]

Well my friend said 65%, and I called BS on him. I'm thinking 55-60% at the most, depending on the tournament.

[ryanghall]

65% is a little excessive, I'm sure. 55-60 definitely feels right. I'm sure I'd take QQ v AK [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ryan

[Kn0wClue]

there isn't any correct answer here. it should be dif for most people depending on how they play a bigger stack and how competent they are to begin with.

[Aleo]

One good argument for 65% is that your friend is FAR better than the field, and he cannot find as good a game all the time. SO in other words, he's probably wrong.

Regards
Brad S