"What decision do I make now?" : Math will not get you there

[Utah]

I dont think there is a misunderstanding......

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I think we are fundamentally confused here.

There are two things: One is your conditional expectation, meaning what to do in the specific situation in front of you. In other words, you are seeking to maximize the chance P of your winning in A when givent the conditions B, aka Pw(A|B). The other thing is the historical overview of your performance.

The two are not the same thing - and I would categorically agree that the second kind of analysis would help you little in the first endeavor.

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All you EVER care about as a player is Pw(A/B). It leads to specific decisions. So, you are exactly making my point - historical overview cannot help you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So, why ever do it?

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there are very specific parameters that can be entered and be helpful in the assessment of the situation

[/ QUOTE ]Please give an example. Those factors are wickedly hard to figure out in the online world. And, even if you could figure them out, there is no formula you can plug them into mathematically to derive the solution, expect for maybe a 2 or 3 player game on the river.

[kazana]

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historical overview cannot help you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So, why ever do it?

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I don't know about the other players here, but I've never made any maths-based decision that rely on my historical data as input.

Nevertheless, my historical data helps me a lot to find faulty patterns in my play. So, if I realize that cold-calling with 72o didn't serve me well, it may well have an impact on my decisions at the table.
I wouldn't claim that this decision is based on maths, though.

I don't quite get your point. It's as if you're comparing apples to... well... high heels or something like that.