Interesting 20 Hand Against Pro

[The Funky Llama]

I think he will rarely bluff or bluffraise this river since he knows you are usually intent on showing down after you check the turn and/or after you bet the river. I guess you could have KJ/KQ/KT after checking the turn and he might be able to bet the river with JQ or KT or something and get you off your hand, but he probably wouldn't because your range is so heavy in ace highs.

Anyway, it seems the optimal river play depends on how often he has a weaker ace that will call and how often he has some sort of pocket pair or something (I'm pretty sure he will bet any pair if you check to him on the river). The key here is that his turn check usually means he does not have a pair, so his range is shifted towards weaker ace high hands like AT and AJ. I think there is a pretty good chance he calls the river with these hands.

Since there are way more weaker ace high hands than pairs (by combinations and by his play), it seems like betting is the play here, with check/fold being second best. If he raises I would call, but I dont think it will happen frequently enough to make check/fold better.

Check/call sucks imo because most good players will rarely bluff this river and if he had a bluffable hand like QT, it would often raise the flop as a semibluff.

[Keepitsimple]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm gonna say broca checks behind on this turn with any pair about 0% of the time. I like your line.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is key

[WillMagic]

Been a while since I've made any strategy posts, but Jeff, I really like your line.

1. Villain has a pair close to never.
2. Villain has [censored] like A6/A5/QJ/KQ/KJ/KT all the time.
3. Villain knows that on this coordinated board your bet/check/bet line is weak, and that your river bet is probably a thin OOP value bet. And he's staring at a nothing hand.

What would you do?

[Jeffage]

Perfect...you said it better than I would have.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

If I check call the river against a good player, most times he will only bet for value and not a bluff since he knows my broken wing act means I'm showing the hand down. So if I check, it's prob with the intention of folding against him. Yet if I bet, he will see I am probably betting Ace high for thin value and that I would be pretty likely to lay down to a raise.

I bet expecting him to raise and being pretty glad about it.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Good post - we think alike.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Villain is not checking behind a pair on the turn here pretty much ever. He either has a monster hand or nothing when he checks behind and he prob bets a monster on the turn rather than trying to get two bets on the river when he knows I might not call the raise. So when he checks the turn, it's very likely he has a worse ace or even less and may raise the river - he figures I was going for a turn checkraise or I was more likely dogging it with that board. So he prob thinks it's likely I will fold a better ace to a river raise yet if I checked, he would check such a hand behind.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Check-call: Laggy, non-thinking opponent who would bet an ace there when he should just turn it over to see if it's good; someone I have notes on that will always bet if checked to but is generally a station (as in, he'd only call turn with open end, but then would bet it busted if you check but fold it if you bet). Another type would be people who don't make thin valuebets but do like to call - or just to mix it up. This is just a ramble, take it for what it is.

Bet/Fold: Someone who would call very light but would only raise with a lock hand..the type of person that doesn't bet the end with mid pair but will call with hands like a worse ace, king high, etc.

Check-Fold: After the turn action, I would only check fold to someone I know plays very well (as in, he knows I know he knows, etc). Even them, I wouldn't fold all the time.

Like everything in life, however, this all "depends."

Jeff

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn play is quite bad -- you just can't give a free card on such a coordinated board. Bet the turn and fold to a raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the time, a bet goes in anyway and you save getting raised. Also, if I bet this turn with the intention to folding to a raise, I think it would invite disaster. I think check calling is fine as long as you checkraise frequently in your general course of play.

[ QUOTE ]
He's also been getting more timid postflop recently (at least against me), which leads me to think that the call of his river raise is probably not the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not timid against me. Also, he can make plays and I think he'd see the chance to raise me off the pot with all the cards out so I wanted to give it to him.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Coming from you, I take that as a huge compliment. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Thanks,
Jeff