Something wrong?

[NeedAJoker]

A little background, I have been playing poker online off and on for the past 2 years as my bankroll allows and started a new PT database to start to get a more accurate showing of how im playing currently. Over time I have been a slightly winning player at the lower limits and I just cant figure out what im doing wrong this last week of playing. I feel like im playing pretty good, but either im on the worst run of cards Ive ever been on or im just playing really badly. I want to post my stats to see if anyone sees anything inherently wrong or if this is just a case of variance. I know this is a very small amount of hands but I want to stop the problem from getting to big if it isnt just variance. AF=.96 with Pre Flop included, 1.99 without. Thanks for any feedback.

[Haupt_234]

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know this is a very small amount of hands but I want to stop the problem from getting to big if it isnt just variance.

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But, you can't tell if it's variance or not since it is so small...

Remember, even online pros have losing weeks. That's just poker.

Haupt_234

[NeedAJoker]

And thats what I want to attribute these losses too but losing session after losing session using the excuse of "oh its just varience?" starts to make me wonder if it really is or if its something im doing wrong.

[Haupt_234]

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And thats what I want to attribute these losses too but losing session after losing session using the excuse of "oh its just varience?" starts to make me wonder if it really is or if its something im doing wrong.


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Well, I think that stat matching is one of the worst ways to figure out what you're doing wrong. Posting hands and getting replies is A LOT better.

With that beind said, your VPIP looks ok. It is higher than mine but so are a lot of players'. Your PFR is fairly low, though, and your attempt to steal blinds is extremely low. I have a feeling that these 2 coincide, and you should be taking shots at the blinds more. Try posting some examples of where you chose to/ chose not to.

Haupt_234

[tsrcess]

variance in small stakes poker play is a interesting concept. i would think an online poker pro (at small stakes where there's always tons of games available) could easily average 5,000 hands per week without excessive multi-tabling. assuming that poker pro was very good, i think the odds are EXTREMELY high that said poker pro will not have a losing week. think of any given 1000 hand session. honestly, if no mistakes were made, how often would that be a losing session? very rarely. even if running bad, i think statistically speaking the bad would have to be made up over the more hands played, again assuming no mistakes. i think "variance" often is a cover for mistakes made. humans probably cycle between fair, good, and excellent play. the key concept is to constantly strive for no (or limited) mistakes. i really don't know anybody who can say they lose and who can also honestly say they make very few mistakes....

[NeedAJoker]

I will try and find some examples. thanks.

[Hielko]

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variance in small stakes poker play is a interesting concept. i would think an online poker pro (at small stakes where there's always tons of games available) could easily average 5,000 hands per week without excessive multi-tabling. assuming that poker pro was very good, i think the odds are EXTREMELY high that said poker pro will not have a losing week. think of any given 1000 hand session. honestly, if no mistakes were made, how often would that be a losing session? very rarely. even if running bad, i think statistically speaking the bad would have to be made up over the more hands played, again assuming no mistakes. i think "variance" often is a cover for mistakes made. humans probably cycle between fair, good, and excellent play. the key concept is to constantly strive for no (or limited) mistakes. i really don't know anybody who can say they lose and who can also honestly say they make very few mistakes....

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If you are a 3BB winner and you are in a span of 500 hands rivered 10 times above normal in a 20BB pot, you loose 200BB while winning only the average 3*5=15BB. No matter how godlike good you are, you can't win when you hit some bad luck like that.

[randomcelestial]

yeah, it's a small sample size but--

your vpip from the small blind is really high. what's your range when there is no raise?

your attempt to steal is too low. you should be at least double, if not x2.5. at the same time, your pfr is too low. you're leaving too much money on the table when people are folding around to you.

your fold blinds to a steal is too timid as well.

[foureightsuited]

You fold to steals too much,
you dont steal enough yourself,
VPIP from sb is a little high,
Went to showdown too low, esp in 1/2 and 2/4
Won $ at showdown too high for 3/6, call down more and you will make more $$$, you are leaving too much value out there.
Raise more preflop.


You might try sticking to a limit and amassing a fair number of hands 50kish and then you can start taking a serious look at some of your stats. Even this is a too small a sample size, but you'll get a much better feeling for your actual numbers this way.

[ncboiler]

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A little background, I have been playing poker online off and on for the past 2 years as my bankroll allows and started a new PT database to start to get a more accurate showing of how im playing currently. Over time I have been a slightly winning player at the lower limits and I just cant figure out what im doing wrong this last week of playing. I feel like im playing pretty good, but either im on the worst run of cards Ive ever been on or im just playing really badly. I want to post my stats to see if anyone sees anything inherently wrong or if this is just a case of variance. I know this is a very small amount of hands but I want to stop the problem from getting to big if it isnt just variance. AF=.96 with Pre Flop included, 1.99 without. Thanks for any feedback.


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You will have worse runs then this if you play for any length of time. You will actually have a lot worse runs then this. I played a similar amount of hands this weekend and my bb/100 was worse then this. It's part of the game. Post hands, read the forum, take part in hand discussions, and poast hands. Oh ya. Did I mention post hands? I have not posted hands from my weekend's poor run because most of my losses were from letting a friend of mine play my account. His name was Mic Light.