Hoping for Coin Flips

[rockin]

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read the section on inflection points where he discusses "M" and "Q". small pairs are death.

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Not when your M is 5 or less. He points this out on several occasions. Sure don't play them for trip value when you have more than that, but in the red zone you are playing the pair as the best hand.

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i'm at work, so obviously I don't have the book with me right now, but I believe this is precisely where he was saying you don't want to play low pairs (orange and red zone).

Without the book on hand, I apologize if I'm wrong. Anyone have the book handy?

[davidross]

once you are in the push or fold area, I would rather push first in with 72, than call an all-in with 55.

[Foucault]

When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

[rockin]

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When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

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good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

[FGators]

My question was more on the lines of an M of 8-12. It can catapult you to a M of over 15 if you win, but if you lose you are feeling the heat of any two determining the great phrase "tournament life".

This also can be stretched to what to do with the blinds at 200/400 and a ante of 25 with eight people at the table, you with a stack of 12000.

Your M=15. You are UTG with two fives. A conservative play would be to dump it. A dumb play would be to raise, because you are lost when you don't flop a set.

If the table is loose what the heck do you do?

This is the reverse of calling the all in obviously, but still has my head scratching. To me its the hardest part of tournament poker...down the stretch lower pocket pair play.

[Foucault]

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good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

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I'm not sure I follow. Are you suggesting he should fold in situations where he has the proper pot odds to call because he does not have fold equity?

[rockin]

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good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

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I'm not sure I follow. Are you suggesting he should fold in situations where he has the proper pot odds to call because he does not have fold equity?

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exactly. unless he has a top tier hand. you can't play a short stack the same as if you have an average stack.

[FGators]

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When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

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good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

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First in vigourish is great when you are in MP3, Cutoff, Button, SB and it's folded to you. It's also great when you are pushing a suited connector in late positon using the first in vigourish and really want to pick up the blinds and antes.

But with an M looming around 10-12, like I mentioned before and early position what good is first in vigourish when six people behind you can pick up a hand that could have your mid pocket pair annihilated?

I feel first in vigourish is obviously great because there is a string of folds to you.

Ugh. Calling all ins with middle pocket pairs from the blinds and pushing mid pocket pairs in early position, with Ms looming around 10-12 literally anger me.

[rockin]

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When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

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good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

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First in vigourish is great when you are in MP3, Cutoff, Button, SB and it's folded to you. It's also great when you are pushing a suited connector in late positon using the first in vigourish and really want to pick up the blinds and antes.

But with an M looming around 10-12, like I mentioned before and early position what good is first in vigourish when six people behind you can pick up a hand that could have your mid pocket pair annihilated?

I feel first in vigourish is obviously great because there is a string of folds to you.

Ugh. Calling all ins with middle pocket pairs from the blinds and pushing mid pocket pairs in early position, with Ms looming around 10-12 literally anger me.

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we were still talking about M<5. if you have an M of 12, then obviously you can open up your play a little bit and do not have to ONLY push or fold.

[Solitare]

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If my read on the UTG+1 is that he is a very aggressive player, raising a lot of pots and pushing in situations like this when he is desperate it is a much easier call, because I'm likely ahead.

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I would also strongly recommend that you get PokerStove or a similar hand analysis tool.

With PokerStove, plug in a hand range you think your villain might be playing and compare that to your hand. Do this often, it will be illuminating.

Let's look at your example. Let's say that your villain is very aggressive and his range for his all-in is any pair, any two broadway cards, and aces down to A7s/A7o. Against this range you are not a slight favorite in the coinflip but a slight dog, 52% to 48%.

Yes, you are ahead of most of the hands in that range. The problem is that the ones that you are behind, you are way behind. Averaging them all out, and you are an underdog.

And I think your situation is worse, as I think someone pushing all-in UTG, even someone desperate, will have a tighter range than that.