50/100 Commerce River Decision

[samoleus]

Dakine, given your description of the opponent and your history, this is an unbelievably perfect flop for you to bet. I really do not understand your logic for not betting this turn against a tricky, loose player who calls without proper odds. Flopping the nuts on a 5 high board against a player who sounds like he might attack with QJ here - no telling what he would do with a real hand. I check back here 0% of the time against the opponent you described.

[Dakine69]

I think I overstated villian's tendencies to make "moves" with nothing on the flop.
Although, I 100% agree that I blew it by not betting flop, villian has mostly folded to my cbets in the past.

I would like to move on from the missed flop bet and hear thoughts on turn and river.

I raised 2000 on top of his miniraise on the turn attempting to leave a 2/3 pot bet left for the river but fell a bit short

[Dakine69]

I felt villian range on the turn after his 2000 call was:
flush draw-highly likely as I have seen him miniraise with draws before
two pair, set
less likely Ace (not with flush draw since ace of hearts fell on turn)
small chance 3 (I think he pushes with a 3)

[samoleus]

Dakine, what will villain think of you checking back the flop? how often do you return a check, closing the action when you were the preflop raiser (especially heads up to the flop).

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
I felt villian range on the turn after his 2000 call was:
flush draw-highly likely as I have seen him miniraise with draws before
two pair, set
less likely Ace (not with flush draw since ace of hearts fell on turn)
small chance 3 (I think he pushes with a 3)

[/ QUOTE ]

Disclaimer: I'll probably never play this high in my life, but fwiw...

I think you have to go with your gut here on the river.

Checking behind him is only a small mistake, but if you have a good reason to think the river boated him and he's capable of checking it for a raise - and you bet and then call a push and get stacked, that is a big mistake. You did think he might have called your turn bet to try to fill up with 2 pr or a set...and the river paired the board! And I just hate the value bet, fold to a push line...I don't get it.

I'd agree with others that if your postflop play was different you'd have a better idea what to do on the river.

[Dakine69]

Sam,

Villain most likely thinks I have ak or some other big card combination if I check the flop. I'm not sure if villian knows my wide range of raising hands even though I haven't raised much so far this session and this is the first time we have played 50/100 together

Results

No doubt I played this hand pretty bad that is why I posted the hand.

The turn, I think a raise of 2500-3000 more in instead of 2k more would of been better even though my 2k raise gave villian about 2.5/1 odds to call for his probably draw and of course gave him plenty of room to make an all in move.

The river is where I thought some discussion would be given the way the hand played out-

villian has about 6k left and the pot is 7300

1)I think an all in given the board pairing is bad for obvious reasons

2)a bet from 3k-5k imo is questionable because given my read of villian's hand ranges, he will only push with a boat and I will be forced to call. I can't see him calling a reraise on the turn with an ace (villian def. reraises pf with ak) and calling a value bet on the river.
If he had A2 he got counterfitted
A4 filled up
A5 is one hand he may call
As I said earlier, villian pushes a 3 prob. 90+% of the time.

3)A small bet of say 1500-2000: Something to consider?
He may call with any hand I beat getting 4.5 to 1
He will push with any boat putting me in a tough spot
He may push (possible but not that high of a percentage) with a missed flush draw, etc. putting me in a tough spot

4) check behind since most likely villian will fold any hand I beat and of course could jeopardize my stack if he filled up (very possible given villian's tendencies)
Of course, I lose some value against the hands I beat and he calls (even though I think in this case there aren't that many hands)

I decided to check riv but I still don't know what the best ev play would be.

Villian didn't show but he mentioned hearts