Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds

[creedofhubris]

Look at it from villain's POV: a TAG raises preflop (from MP, not from a steal position) and leads for the pot. A strong player cold-calls the flop bet. Two players have shown a lot of interest in this pot. And STILL he throws out a raise. This is representing a great deal of strength from a tight villain (alb? stackinoff?).

Stacks are shallow compared to the size of his bet, your outs are obvious. There's really no point in continuing. I think your initial flop call was dubious as well.

[okayplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at it from villain's POV: a TAG raises preflop (from MP, not from a steal position) and leads for the pot. A strong player cold-calls the flop bet. Two players have shown a lot of interest in this pot. And STILL he throws out a raise. This is representing a great deal of strength from a tight villain (alb? stackinoff?).

Stacks are shallow compared to the size of his bet, your outs are obvious. There's really no point in continuing. I think your initial flop call was dubious as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, good guess, it was Stackinoff.

I am kinda surprised so many people would check/fold the flop. I am 50/50 vs TT+/AK, and by calling I get to see what the other player does without necessarily committing myself (which I hadn't made a decision to do yet). Once he raised, and the raiser folded, I had a decision to make...

I figured if he had a set (which I likely thought he had), then a push would be slightly +EV, but if he had a flush already (like AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which he could certainly limp in EP) I am toast and drawing to a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or runner runner FH. So I opted to fold.

But after I ran the numbers, I think this is much closer than everyone is saying. I am ~41% vs a set (which I think is most likely), and if I include AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then I am ~37.8%, and only when I include AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], do I get ~35%, where it is -EV. And this is with even weighting, I would say a set is most likely followed by AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] . Of course, he could have another flush combo, but I find it rather unlikely that he limp calls with any of those hands in EP, but I guess it is possible since he had opened his game up a little.

Meh.

[creedofhubris]

OK, how about this:

there is no chance that villain is folding to a push, having put in half his stack. Your only play here is a push. If you push, in the best case you are slightly +EV, and in the worst case you are hugely -EV.

PS I think villain's range is wider than you suggest here, although if you have stats that say otherwise I'd believe you; he's calling that PF raise closing the action 4-way, and he limps a lot with suited connectors.