Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush

[Aaron W.]

Here's an exchange between Clark and myself from a while ago:

Me quoting someone else:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're heads-up, out of position on the river. The river card puts four to a flush on the board, but you don't have the flush. According to the Clarkmeister Theorem, you should bet and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's part of it. Everyone keeps saying it, but nobody has ever been able to show me where Clark says that.

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Clark's response:

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[ QUOTE ]
nobody has ever been able to show me where clark says that.

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I never did.

If you get raised, it's generally a good idea to fold, but far from always. Sometimes, one just needs to play some poker. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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[Cardzy]

I check/call the river. I don't fold it.

[marchron]

I fold. Villain would have to be some kind of bluff-happy maniac for me to ever call him down here.

[inferno]

why did you bet the river

[Manhammer]

Ugh, that river sucks.
Given the action pre-flop and on the flop, we could probably narrow villan's range down to QQ, KK, and maybe JJ (which maybe a bit narrow).

If we use that range, 9 combos have a spade, 9 don't (if I figured it right).

I think that's enough to make me c/c the river.
I want to get to SD with this hand cheaply.
If we bet, we're just going to get raised by a better hand and a worse hand will either fold or bluff-raise. Getting bluff raised is unlikely, but I'd hate to bet and give villan a chance to chase us out and then show something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. That would put me on tilt for like, a month. Plus, check-calling gives villan a chance to bet a worse hand.

[Lego05]

I don't really play cash games much. Play some MTT's and mostly just grind the STT's, but every once in a while I'll sit at a cash table and this river just seems like a really obvious check/call to me.

Edit: Also as I said I don't play many cash games so I don't really look at the cash game forums here. But is 2/4 seriously considered micro? I thought micro was like things under a dollar.

[Stoo_Pot]

Bet fold. Call if like paying to see a spade.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
why did you bet the river

[/ QUOTE ]
"Clarkmeister Theorem."

By betting, we force Villain to fold (almost always) any non-flush hands that still beat us (and, in rare but significant cases, a baby flush). And if he has a decent flush, he raises, allowing us to fold with a clean conscience.

It probably isn't the best application here, since the only non-flush hand that still beats us is a straight, and Villain will probably call a straight for one bet. But check/calling the fourth flush card from OOP allows him to value-bet all the hands that crush us, check behind all the hands that we beat and — most importantly — check behind all the hands that beat us but would have folded if we bet.

[Mustafa]

I don't think he has to have K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] but I give him credit for either K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], JJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or QQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I can't imagine him bluff raising you since you haven't shown anything but strength.

[spector]

Except there really are no hands that villian would check behind that beat us, he capped pf there is no way he has qj here