when to call a habitual pusher

[jlkrusty]

Sam:

I did some calculations on PokerStove. The question here is what range of hands is he making this all in move. According to PokerStove, the top 35% of the hands are as follows:

55+,A2s+,K3s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A4o+,K8o+,Q9 o+,J9o+,T9o

If we were also to add all pocket pairs into the mix (not just 55+), then assume he is making this all in play with all of the following hands:

22+,A2s+,K3s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A4o+,K8o+,Q9 o+,J9o+,T9o

Here is equity you have with three different hands vs. the above range of hands:

A8o: 50.9%%
A7s: 51.7%
KJo: 50.3%
55: 51.1%

You don't need above 50% equity to make the call since there is some dead money already in the pot.

If you define his hands more narrowly, say:

22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Here is the equity of some hands against this hand range:

A9s: 49.8%
ATo: 52.3%
KQs: 49.5%
66: 50.8%

It appears that making the all in call with 66+ or A8o+ is probably about right.

There may, however, be other considerations. You said that you were raising even more hands (hands that you knew you would fold to his all in raise) just to encourage him to keep up his erratic all ins. This tells me that you are voluntarily giving -EV on these hands just for a more +EV later--when you will make the all-in call. You have also suggested that he might stop his all in bets if he doubled up--suggesting you have limited shots at making up for the -EV you are giving him in the hands you fold. Accordingly, you probably want more than just a marginal +EV to make this call. Of course you can't overdo this, or someone else will pick him off before you do. So, you may want to slightly tighten your calling standards above 66+ and A8o+. If you called with 77+, A9o+, you should be safe.