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#1
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12.5:2 = 6.25:1 that you hit a Q,A on turn.
JJ = winning QQ = screwed KK = you have 2 outs to Q's, 3 outs to A AA = you have 2 outs to Q's [AA,KK] 16.32% equity according to pokerstove. EV(call)= 16.32%*12.5SB - 83.68%*2SB = +0.3664SB EV(raise)= 16.32%*12.5SB - 83.68%*3SB = -0.47SB [QQ-AA] 14.7% equity EV(call)= 14.7%*12.5SB - 85.3%*2SB = +0.1315SB EV(raise)= 14.7%*12.5SB - 85.3%*3SB = -0.7215SB [JJ-AA] 42.2% equity EV(call)= 42.2%*12.5SB - 57.8%*2SB = +4.12SB EV(raise)= 42.2%*12.5SB - 57.8%*3SB = +3.54SB So for every case, raising is definitely out and folding is definitely out. I would call. |
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#2
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[ QUOTE ]
12.5:2 = 6.25:1 that you hit a Q,A on turn. JJ = winning QQ = screwed KK = you have 2 outs to Q's, 3 outs to A AA = you have 2 outs to Q's [AA,KK] 16.32% equity according to pokerstove. EV(call)= 16.32%*12.5SB - 83.68%*2SB = +0.3664SB EV(raise)= 16.32%*12.5SB - 83.68%*3SB = -0.47SB [QQ-AA] 14.7% equity EV(call)= 14.7%*12.5SB - 85.3%*2SB = +0.1315SB EV(raise)= 14.7%*12.5SB - 85.3%*3SB = -0.7215SB [JJ-AA] 42.2% equity EV(call)= 42.2%*12.5SB - 57.8%*2SB = +4.12SB EV(raise)= 42.2%*12.5SB - 57.8%*3SB = +3.54SB So for every case, raising is definitely out and folding is definitely out. I would call. [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't give an accurate picture of the EV. If you hit your "outs" i.e. your A or Q....you have to put in another two big bets to showdown.....and still have a loss against AA. You can't use the equity calculations of Poker Stove (which go to showdown) to compute an EV for the turn. |
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