Highest win rate expectation...LH,NLH,Tournies?

[mntbikr15]

Assuming the following

-You play the highest limit your BR will allow
-You can become an above average player at any game(note...I do not think this is me)


Then which game should you be concentrating on.
-Limit Cash
-NL Cash
-MTT
-STT
-Any combination of above


Thoughts?

-Evan

[flopking]

Its complex and dependent on several factors... what limits are you going to play?, are you going to multitable? etc...

Here are my thoughts:
Assuming a 5K starter bankroll for all games and very conservative bankroll levels... you are "1.5x" as good as an average player and you are single tabling...

A conservative 500BB BR requirement for limit...
Limit (1 table) $5/10... (2 BB/100hands) ~$12/Hr

A conservative 25 buy-in for NL
NL (1-table) $1-2 (5-7BB/100) ~$9/HR

A conservative 35 tourney buy-ins...
MTTs (1 table) $109s (ROI 85% and an average MTT duration of 3.5 hrs) ~$25/HR

A conservative 35 tourney buy-ins
STT (1-table) $109s (ROI 17% with an average duration of 1 hr) ~$18/hr...

anyway these are just off the cuff... and to be sure, you need to consider the rake and variance factor involved with all of these... also with the tourney's I'm not sure if the ROI %s take the rake into account, or just the buy-in... depending on those numbers it affects your hourly expectation quite a bit...

[Number27]

I think alot of it depends on what the strengths of your game are. You may be able to become better than average at some games; but an expert at other games. I think it's hard to believe that you would progress at an identical rate through each different type of game.

Identify your strengths and weaknesses and find the game that best uses these.

[OrangeKing]

[ QUOTE ]

A conservative 35 tourney buy-ins...
MTTs (1 table) $109s (ROI 85% and an average MTT duration of 3.5 hrs) ~$25/HR


[/ QUOTE ]

35 buy-ins is very small for MTTs, I think. I was always told 100 buy-ins was closer to realistic if you were going to play only MTTs, which means our person would probably be playing $50+5s, putting his winrate (not surprisingly) around where the other ones are.

[southgapoker]

100 is pretty conservative. 60 or so is plenty.

[labrat]

Play some of each, stick to what you like best and/or win most at. Simple.

[Zim]

"A conservative 25 buy-in for NL
NL (1-table) $1-2 (5-7BB/100) ~$9/HR"

$1-$2 table, $200 buy in, should average 5-7 PTBB/100 hands which is equivalent to twice the bb size. So ...

$20-$28/100 hands so about $15/hr would be closer to the mark.

FWIW ...

[Niediam]

past: limit cash
present: NL cash
future: limit cash

[Tiltguru]

Sorry to hijack, but 500BB is not a conservative LHE BR. Especially if you are talking 6 max. I would have agreed with you a few months ago, but... lets just say 500 BB downswings are possible. 500 BB is fine if you don't touch your bankroll at all (and run well), but if you plan to withdraw and leave your bankroll at only 500BB, be prepared to step down or find a job. it's not a matter of if, but when.

[Trent]

You pose an excellent question mntbikr15. I believe no one has came close to answering it yet.

This calculation is dependent on many different variables that could be debated back and forth. I believe that any figure that someone will come up with could not clearly show that one form of game has a significantly higher earn rate than any other.

I will present my calculations and justifications latter on.

I have some gaps in my data thou, if someone could help me out:
What is the average time for a STT?
What is the standard deviation for a MTT?
What is the ROI for the average winner at a MTT?
How long does an average MTT go for?

Trent.