When the value of your set comes into question

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[ QUOTE ]
You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

[ QUOTE ]
and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

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False.

[Gregatron]

Aaron is right. Sometimes it is okay to coldcall a small pocker pair preflop. But this in not one of them.

[TredWel]

Fine, let me clarify:

You don't get good implied odds when you're on the button and the only other person in the pot so far is the PFR. Cold calling is fine in the case when there are several other players committed to the pot already.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.


[/ QUOTE ]

What?!

Care to elaborate Aaron? It seems like cold calling with low pairs in general will be a loser. Even in position. In a family pot your implied odds look better. But heads up it seems like this to me:

1 time you flop a set. You might the Villian to pay you 5 big bits on average. I think this is generous.

7.5 times you miss your set and must fold having paid 2 small bets (1bb).

(1*5) - (2 * 7.5) = 5 - 15 = -10 BB profit

You lose 1.2 bets per hand on average when you enter this. I know sometimes the villain will pay better, but sometimes he will also fold to the flop raise.

So I think Aaron's "False" is either not what he meant, or I don't get it.

Without a compelling read this is a PF fold.

[Gregatron]

Aaron is actually right. He is saying that the position that one should never cold calling 44 preflop is wrong.

[milesdyson]

the preflop debate in this thread is unneccesary and extremely nittish. the first guy who suggested folding preflop used some misleading terms. whatever. his advice as it pertains to this thread is great, and this is a very bad preflop call.

imo, this is a very easy river raise w/o a read.

[kleos]

[ QUOTE ]
(1*5) - (2 * 7.5) = 5 - 15 = -10 BB profit

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, this math is wrong. it should be -2.5 BB

[Fryguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[ QUOTE ]
You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

[ QUOTE ]
and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[/ QUOTE ]

To get even with a set, you need to make 8.5 sb postflop when you see a flop right? 8.5:1 to flop a set, occasionally you win UI and occasionally you lose to a straight/flush/something else, pretty much a wash. If you play this same situation 9 times, you are going to check/fold the flop (probably) 8 times, and win a pot once.

If you are paying 2 bets each time preflop, this means you lose 16 bets the 8 times you check/fold the flop when you miss, so you need to win at least 16 sb the time you do flop the set.

Yes I realize these numbers are fudged, mostly because I don't like dealing with the half, but the concept remains the same.

[Aaron W.]

My thoughts elaborated a little bit:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[/ QUOTE ]

Coldcalling with 44 can be correct if the situation is right. Saying "don't coldcall with 44" is simply wrong. In the context of this hand, it was the correct advice. You should "never" coldcall 44 in this position (let's not talk about floating here).

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why you play hands like 44 even though you only flop a set 1 in 9 times or so. You need implied odds. But implied odds come from lots of players or just having a very aggressive player.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't get them when you put two bets in preflop AND you're the only one putting in two bets preflop. If you've got 3 people voluntarily in the pot ahead of you, coldcalling will usually get you to a 8-9 SB pot paying 2 SB. So then you lose 2 SB 8 times and only need to get another 8 SB in the pot postflop when you *do* flop a set (well, pad it a little for when you get beat and call it 10 SB = 5 BB). This is a reasonable outcome when there are 5-6 people seeing the flop, especially if you have good relative position. People will see more turns when the pot is big on the flop, and that just gives you more money.

[egocidal]

All,

I know. It was a bad PF call. In fact, in my OP I kind of hinted that it was crappy. Not really the issue here. I guess that there is no issue amongst any of you with going to the felt raising here on the river?