Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?

[Ergodicity]

You make a pretty big error in analysis here, Phil.

For starters, having 56% chance to win is only in aggregate for all weighted hands. He only needs to have a set or straight a very small % of the time to have you [censored], since when you have odds you generally barely have odds, but when you don't you are completely hosed.

Looks like Ergodicity may be visiting you sooner than most, my friend,