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Old 01-04-2006, 06:38 AM
Shandrax Shandrax is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,664
Default Re: Problem with your book

[ QUOTE ]
But that doesn't make any sense. The odds of missing it 20 times in a row are very low. Are you telling me that if you miss a flush draw 99 times in a row by some crazy strike of probality, on the 100th time its the same chance? If that was true, than probability wouldn't work. I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up. The reason why is I knew to only bet colors, and only bet a color that hadn't come up in a while, because the odds of red not coming up 10 times in a row are low. Why do you think they have a history chart at the tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's actually called "St. Petersburg Paradoxon". In Roulette red can come 100000 times in the row and the chance for black to come on the next roll is just 17/36. Same thing in Poker because every new shuffle will create a totally independent situation and reset the probabilities.

Not so in Blackjack. Because the cards that are out of the shoe have zero chance to show up on the next round (unless they reshuffle of course). Therefore the shoe has a memory and therefore rounds depend on each other. That's why you can beat Blackjack and that's why you cannot beat Roulette!
 


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