Taking a break from Poker - LONG & Low Content

[RoundTower]

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some of the best tournament players I know have gone strings of 50+ tournaments without cashing.

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If you know 10 players that fit your criteria with an average ITM of 15% (good ones are higher), then I bet they would have to play more than 10,000 tournaments each for there to be a greater than 10% chance for this to occur.

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Your math seems to be off here. The odds of a player with a 15% ITM going 0-50 on his next 50 tournaments is around .03%, or it should happen around once every 3000 or so tournaments. Or if you play 5 tournaments a day, it should happen about once every few years. I know at least 10 very successful professional online tournament players who play about that volume, so collectively, it should happen to a couple of them just about every year. Of course there are other factors, like playing worse after a long slide, getting frustrated, etc. Maybe those were present in some of the situations I have in mind, I don't know, but each of the players eventually recovered and continued to have great success afterwards.

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This actually turns out to be a semi-interesting probability question.

After I posted that I then ran the numbers on the % chance of 50 loses in a row if you just play 50 tournaments like you did. For an itm of 15% that's obv just 0.85^50 like you said.

And I guess it isn't anymore complicated than that value multiplied by (3000-50) for the % chance of getting a run of 50 losses in a row? (It seems like it should be but I can't find it.)

What's also interesting is that an increase of a 1% point in itm% decreases this 50 loss run by a factor of two. I guess not suprising considering the exponent.

I would imagine most that call them professionals are better than 15%.



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what is that second graph meant to mean, what is 10000% in this context?