UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79

[Viscant]

Only action I've got is Thiago Silva at +130.

Ed Herman at -140 against Doerksen who hasn't looked good lately and is taking the fight on short notice is tempting. I hear nothing but good things about how Ed is training better than ever before, but I just couldn't put the money down. Plus rooting for Ed Herman in a fight would just make me feel a little nauseous inside.

Lines for this event have been mostly reasonable. Only one with significant value IMO is Silva/Alexander and I see that as 60/40 in Silva's favor at the max. 50/50 if he chooses to stand and trade with Houston like he claims he's going to.
79 already looks much better from a gambling perspective.


Overeem could be washed up. Check his record, he hasn't had much go his way in a long time. Factor in his legendarily shallow gas tank and the fact that his game feels a little dated these days and he's about where he should be, line wise