The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP

[TxDozerMan]

I certainly don't doubt this being a 99% chance of folding into a seat, and also a 99% chance that playing this hand can only decrease that number. Being able to quantify this at least to a good estimate would make the bubble much easier to play.

I think you are onto something, start with how many hands hero has left, then the chances of 2 big hands meeting. Would starting with total chips in play minus huge stacks(shouldn't be playing without monsters) and come up with avg stack when bubble bursts be helpful to this calculation?

I'm not looking for an exact formula per se, since I doubt one could be created. I am more curious at determining all the factors that should be considered while estimating this number.