The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP

[Prime Time]

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I did misread the hand. But even in this situation, AA is a fold. Let's say for the sake of argument that gwilkx and pechorin are 30th and 29th in chips. If you lose an 80-20 proposition here, you have less than 30k and have barely more than 29th and 30th, and you have to post the BB before Pechorin. So you have put yourself in a spot to lose a definite seat on an 80-20 race.

I'm assuming Prime Time is around 16th or so with his stack. FOURTEEN players would need to double up, or steal, or something along those lines to make Prime Time worry about his seat. There is MUCH greater than an 80% chance that he can fold his way into a seat.

If in this spot Prime Time was the chipleader, I'd push with AA or KK to play sheriff maybe. But even then I'd probably just be sitting out.

The blinds escalate and force others to push their small stacks into the blinds. This creates opportunites for short stacks to bust. If you are 3rd in chips for example, and a shorty pushes with 5 BB from the CO, and you hold any two cards you can risk a very little to knock out the shorty. But when you might possibly lose 2/5 of your stack or more if you continue with the hand and losing 2/5 of your stack puts you in the bottom 5 in chips, you NEED to fold everything.

In Prime Time's spot he isn't enough of a chipleader to push other big stacks away and he has a hand that is very easily beat. Raising to 8k here is unacceptable IMO. Pushing is horrible, and calling is bad. I hope I've made a decent argument as to why I'd fold AA or KK here as well.



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Excellent analysis Nez477!
My exact thoughts as I was playing.
Posted this to help others understand proper Sat strategy.

Lets keep this in mind.
If this was a Sunday Super, I would have “busted out” [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]on the hand, cause if my chips are not all-in PF, they are certainly in after the flop.

Any comments on this?