The Mathematics of poker by Bill Chen & some dude...

[Jerrod Ankenman]

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Traditional risk of ruin says, for a 300 bet bankroll:

ror = exp(-2*w*b/s^2) = exp(-2*1.5*300/289) = 4.44%

This is the risk of ruin if your TRUE win rate is 1.5 bb/100 and your TRUE standard deviation is 17 bb/100.

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On what basis do you use standard deviation to predict what will happen a future sittings at a poker table?

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<montypython>It's only a model.</montypython>