Swings in NLCASH

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
According to my simulations even a 50 buy-in downswing is possible with a stable winrate of 8 PTBB/100 (no tilting/other psychological defects allowed) although it'll be extremely rare. That is for a player whose standard deviation per 100 hands is about 75PTBB/100. 20BI downswings seem to be quite common.

I have been researching variance in heads up poker lately and I'll probably share my simulator with you once it is easier to use.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given my ridiculous first response, I must correct what I said. I totally agree with the quoted post (BTW, please share your simulation that would be awesome!).

20+ BI downswings will happen to a full time player probably monthly.

It really depends on game selection. If you stick with passive players I believe your downswings will be much much more manageable.