STTF SNG->cash thread

[ChrisV]

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Why isn't AK in their range?

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It might be, but it doesn't seem likely. A few things in the line don't fit. They might have reraised preflop. The raise on the flop would probably be larger so as not to price in like everything. And the bet on the river is way way way too large. What would AK be trying to get value from with a pot size bet? It loses to or ties with everything that calls that.

When playing against fairly competent players, I place quite a bit of faith in bet sizing. In this river situation there's no reason to bet full pot with a weakish made hand (nothing can call) or with a bluff (not much folds to $10 then $30 that doesn't also fold to $8 then $20). That leaves a big hand, an interpretation that is supported by the minraise on the flop and switch up to full pot on the turn (probably the board got too drawish for comfort).

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Also, isn't the reason to "bluff" really is my stats are 18/12?

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I didn't say your opponent wouldn't bluff, just that a bluff attempt probably wouldnt go minraise-pot-pot. But there's also the board, which is pretty monstrous looking versus someone who raised from the SB.

EDIT: OH wait you mean the 87hh hand right. There's nothing wrong with mixing it up a bit, I'm just saying you should do it in position. Threebet some TAG's raise with 87hh for sure, just steer clear of it OOP. The initial pf raise is worse than the call of the threebet btw. The point is that if you're afraid people will squeeze you, don't raise with bad hands in situations where it might go flat call-flat call-reraise. If you're in those situations you make it EASIER for other TAGs to pick on you.