Sklansky Bucks Calculator: PokerEV

[Phil153]

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i don't see how the other way is flawed - it should allow you to make better winrate estimates without any bias. if you don't think this is true i'd like to hear why.

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I explained it above to scwhza. Imagine a HU hand where you put $150 in preflop with KK (vs AA) (with 20% equity) and your final $50 on the flop when you flop a set with 90% equity. According to the full pot method, if you lose, you will have gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$360. Yet in reality, you've only really gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$90, which is your expected earn from the flop action. So using this method can overestimate the magnitude of your luck significantly. You can see how this would affect setminers and the like where flop equity is usually very different to preflop equity. The way I do it ignores this portion of luck, so the number is more reflective of actual luck. If you want to use this kind of method, you're better off going with the "all in before river" checkbox on the analysis tab.

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how are you handling multiway all in situations where one of the other players folds after you are all in?

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This is done incorrectly, and can skew the results for people who regularly short stack. It's discussed above. It'll be fixed in the next version with an option to exclude these situations. I'm assuming the effect isn't large, since both curtains and ImsaKidd report running roughly equal, but it may be for you. It shouldn't affect full stackers at all.

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i don't think that's necessarily true. it won't affect full stacks often, but when it does the pots could be very large. i don't think the difference is negligible if you're trying to make winrate estimates.

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But the effect is fractional and extremely rare with full stacks, because 300BB will have gone in already by the time three people are all-in. These kind of 3-way pots are already very rare, and situations where someone folds after putting that much money in are even rarer. When they do, they usually didn't affect the equity that much anyway. You'll see in the next version (with the option to exclude) that the effect is basically non existent. I don't have enough short stack hands to tell you how often it becomes an issue with short stackers.