Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[knappis]

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yeah, it is, but you haven't calculated the probability of our fundamental suspicion, which isn't that he folded everytime someone else had a big pair (he didn't) but that he started wit 93% of his hands but never called a river beat.

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I was going through the stats from the known sessions to see if we could make an aproximate model for his river play and I found that one important stat is missing. We need to know how often he saw river.

One odd thing with is his went to showdon stats that are in the 22%-32% range. Wouldn't they be higher if he could see everybodies hole cards? Anywqay, that was just a side track.

I'm also not to sure the stats support the idea that he made perfect river play. And in fact what you say is that he didn't make a perfect play even in the 25 hand sample. I don't know if you realise this buit there is a big difference in the odds between perfect play and a play that allows for a few mistakes. I can just take my model of the 25 hand session as an example:

Perfect play vs 4 big pairs:
(4/25)*(3/24)*(2/23)*(1/22) = 1:12650

1 mistake vs 5 big pairs:
(5/25)*(4/24)*(3/23)*(2/22) = 1:2530