Percentages of Common Situations In NL

[guy4565]

I agree with the easy 4/2 x outs rule, but I think many beginners do not take into account the 4x on the turn assumes you are going to see the turn and the river. Otherwise you are "about" the same percentage per card. If you only plan on calling the turn because you think you will get raised out before the river take into account you are not getting a 4 x 9 or 36% odds, you actually have 9/46 or a little less than 20% per card chance of hitting your flush, if you put over that much of the pot in to see only one card you are not getting the right odds. If you think you are up against a set already take into account that there is also after the turn a 10/44 chance the board will pair, or almost 23%, that is assuming you put your opponent on a set which gives you 8 known cards (of course you don't know for sure but isn't that part of poker using the most knowledge you can, I think it is foolish to not adjust your odds if you are good enough to put your opponent on a hand), so he is getting about the same odds to hit his fh when he already has you beat that you are of hitting a possible winner that still could lose. My favorite t-shirt is the one that says "I have to go to community college because my daddy goes all in on flush draws", it amazes me how many people think that flush draw is golden, especially in omaha, I see all in all the time with no other option of winning, of course I understand the aspect of it being a semi-bluff, and I'm rambling, but just thought I'd clarify to the best of my understanding the 4/2 rule. Any thoughts are appreciated. Steve