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1/2 NL. Mid-position raise to $7 and I call with 88 on the button. SB calls.
Flop is JTT. "A" checks, "B" makes a weak c-bet of $9 and I call. "A" calls. Turn is a 9. Turn gets checked around. River is an 8. Player A bets $15 and Player B calls. Neither are particularly good, but "A" would rarely bet a T or bluff this pot and "B" would rarely call with anything less than a straight. I'm now put to the decision of how much to raise. I conclude that it's likely/very likely that at least one of them has a Q, so I raise to $45. Both fold. "A" didn't show and "B" had a 7, which is uncharacteristic for both players. Most "did I play this right?" posts are retarded, but I have a specific question: Heads-up, I'd stand by that raise as I felt it was likely/very likely (which I assigned as a 70% chance) that the V had the Q and if so, I'd be almost guaranteed a call. If he didn't have a Q, he'd simply fold--this has an EV of $28.35: (0.7*(0.9*45))+(0.3*0) A min-raise would have been guaranteed a call by a Q and would have had maybe a 50% chance of getting called by a weaker hand. There is, however, a slight chance that "A" is bluffing--let's say it's 10%. So, this has an EV of $24: ((0.7*30)+(0.2*(0.5*30)+(0.1*0)))) Now, should the fact that two players were in the pot change my rationale? In the situation given, I feel a min-raise probably would've had the same EV stated above, as "A" calling most likely would've prompted a fold from "B" (unless they both had Qs, but this is very unlikely). But, because the EVs of both situations are very close, should I have min-raised and hoped for the longshot double-call? |
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