Donkey Test

[willyc]

So why on earth do they want us to call on number 3?

All else aside, if this guy is only pushing big pocket pairs (say TT+) and AK/AQ then he's he's a big favorite 42% of the time and we're a slight favorite 56% of the time.

I did a very rough calculation, and I have us making about $0 on average here, or about $70 if we factor in a generous 5% chance that he is bluffing and trying to buy the pot with rags. That's positive, but still way too marginal to call $1300 I think, especially in a cash game.

Once again the question was:

25/50 NL. 9 Handed. You're on the button with:

TT

A tight aggressive player in middle position raises to $200. You choose to call on the button, and relatively tight short stack with $1,500 in the big blind pushes all-in. You've seen him do this only with big pairs and AK or AQ so far.

The middle position player thinks and folds. What should you do?

Fold
Call