Donkey Test

[willyc]

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Meaning, the worst you think the player is, the better it is to go all-in for a higher EV. I think that should make sense, no?

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Well the problem here is that EV is not really a meaningful concept when all your money is on the line. If you decide that you get the highest EV by pushing all in, what you are saying is "Even if I lose here, I will gain on average in the long run by pushing every time in this situation."

Well if you lose here then you're not going to come across this situation again because you have no money to play with, so you can't really talk about expected value.

There isn't a mathematically correct answer here, you have to ask yourself "Am I willing to risk it all for a good chance of doubling up, or do I want to avoid the possibility of losing everything.