$60 Turbo- Level 8- AK in BB versus big stack

[ger664]

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You need to fold this

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The fact that bigstack has been very passive during the bubble increases the chance that he has a big hand dramatically. Also, he'd be getting more than 2 to 1 on his call, so those two facts combined -> no FE.

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I would imagine that CLer is raising any pair, any ace, and probably something like KT+. I would also think that he'd interpret our shove as a major sign of strength and would fold a lot of the smaller pairs. Winning this pot (either uncontested or in a showdown) puts us in a great position to abuse the bubble a gain a ton of future EV.

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I am still on the fence on whether this is a fold or a shove.

If villian calls this with a PP at 50% of the time its -1.70% against 45% pot equity when called.

Do you think villian will fold this more often then he will call ?
How much of a -$EV can we take here that we will make up in future hands on the bubble ?