I cannot win on pokerstars. Reasons ??

[Josem]

to respond to your other points:

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1-People say it's impossible to say online poker is rigged. 100% certainty yes. That's your confidence level.... 95% is very good, at least for me.


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that is just plain wrong. with the right evidence, you could certainly prove that online poker at a particular site is rigged.

"People say it's impossible to say online poker is rigged" - which is true, on the basis of evidence currently available. On the evidence available now, it is impossible to say online poker is rigged.

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2-What about the time series (taking the order of the events into account)? Ex: I toss a coin a 100 times. Get about 50 heads so it's ok, right? What if the fist 40 times I tossed the coin I got heads? NOT right! But the average is still perfect. Think about it! One way to take this into account is to count the distance between the events, lets say, the distance d between AA's (if I get AA and the next hand I get AA d=1). I swear the most probable distance is one! the d distro should be [(1-p)^d]*p. If you plot a histogram (monolog) of d it should be a straight line (y is log(#events on bin) ) for a large sample.

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We do not have a publicly available analysis of the time series, so it is silly to make conjecture on the basis of a possible distribution.

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2b- People say you need a big sample to say a site is rigged (or suspect with very good reasons). Wrong! Let's say you see 2 or 3 royals on a row. That's only 2 or 3 events

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But the sample is much higher than you realise.

Of the hundreds of thousands of people who post on this board, they play hundreds of thousands of hands each (I don't know what the average playing experience of people on this board is, but I imagine that those who have played millions of hands compensate for those who have played few).

we're now looking at hundreds of billions of hands - if the person who gets two royal flushes in a row (at odds of x million to 1, or whatever it is) posts about it (as he is likely to) that can not now be proof that online poker is rigged.


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3-Now for less numbers and more feelings: Party poker changed something this week, I feel.

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At least points 1- 2b were at least credible and showed some logical thought (although they overlooked serious flaws in the thinking process). This is just silly.

A mistake that many people make is to intuitively over-estimate the favouritism that a hand like AK has over 72 (or whatever). That is, incidentally, why in STTs and MTTs hyper aggressive short-stack play is so incredibly important and the key to success - if you pick up the blinds, you get a huge boost, and if you get called, you're rarely worse than 40% chance of winning, and hardly ever worse than 20% chance of winning.