Daniel Negreanu's Latest Cardplayer Article

[LGs0pHT]

Although I really love DN on TV, I must say that DS is completely right here.

There is always a certain ROR, Risk Of Ruin, which can be 1% as well as 90%. It depends on how you manage your money. By taking "risks" or shots", you basically increase the ROR and hope, that it auto-decreases due to good variance.

However this will most likely not work every time you try it (try to reach a higher level), and can throw you back farther back than it can kick you forward.

Imagine you have a 20k Bankroll and play NL1K FR, you have 20 Buy-Ins. No you want to take a shot at NL2K FR.
Lets say you plan to leave in case you double up. Now there are two possible cases: Either you double up and leave with 4K. You now have 22K in your BR and still can not play NL2KFR safely (since you need at least 40K). Considering, that the you have not played NL2K FR, and might not be able to beat it, it is much more likely that you loose 2K. Your BR is 18K then, and you are not even safe at NL1K anymore. Now you have to go back to NL500K. To build up to 20K you need to win 4 Buy-Ins now, while earlier (when your BR was 20K) it would only have taken you to win 2 Buy-Ins at NL1K to reach your original goal of a 22K.