Re: Turning Stone 550 ESPC, Bad Spot with Huge Draw
Are we calling hoping to induce Ansky to jam so the old guy jams so we can call and have pot odds to win a huge pot? If not, I don't understand the call. Ansky is never calling behind us, he's either jamming (with a set or a straight) or folding. If a club hits the turn, I can't believe we're getting paid off unless someone else also has a flush, which happens almost never. We're getting less than 2:1 to call the old guy, with no implied odds IMO. It's also more than 1/3 of our stack to call.
I think the old guy's range is mostly 22 and 33 with a slight chance of A2 or A3 (hasn't played a pot, just put in a small pot-building raise over a C/R). Ansky was in the BB, he could have anything, including a set or a straight. Especially with Ansky, who did C/R the flop after all, still to act behind us, I think this has to be a fold.
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