NL25: fold bottom set?

[Specialwon]

Pokerstoving excluding only AA and including all 2 pair hands gives 55.5% equity.

But, in the real world, 2 pairs play this way less often than sets and 34. If we say that the 2 pair hands are half as likely as the killers to follow villain's pattern, you have only 38% equity. Maybe talk it up to 40% allowing for bluffs and Ax possibilities.

Given the money already in the pot, a shove isn't horrible. But, it's high variance play, and its a kick in the teeth to get oversetted, gotta think about what that does to your tilt control for the next few hands after.

If you can bring yourself to make the big laydown, I think a fold is the best play.