Donkey Test

[KipBond]

Here is the best case scenario I think we are looking at:

Board: 4d 5h 7c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.874% 45.93% 00.94% 26828 551.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 53.126% 52.18% 00.94% 30480 551.00 { 88-55, 86s, 75s, 63s, 86o, 75o, 63o }

However, if our opponent is a good tight player (with non-"tricky aggression" on flops), I think this is more likely:

Board: 4d 5h 7c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.566% 29.67% 00.89% 11163 336.00 { 4h4s }
Hand 1: 69.434% 68.54% 00.89% 25785 336.00 { 77, 55, 86s, 63s, 86o, 63o }

If we think he might be 3-betting loosely (contrary to his image), then this is a marginal push. We have $110 of our $1000 stack, and it will cost us the rest of it to find out if we are right. The more I think about it, the more a fold seems right here. A very tight, non-"tricky-aggressive" player, in the BB, bets out on a coordinated flop, meets a raise, then pushes in 40% of his stack. I'd guess he has the low straight 35% of the time, the high straight 35% of the time, a higher set 25% of the time, and a bluf/semi-bluff 5% of the time. Just a guess, I didn't crunch any #s to come up with those. Let me know if you think they are way off. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]