Suppose Tipping Poker Dealers Was Illegal

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would reasonably good dealers who chose to remain dealers make as much or more than they do now?

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It would be about a $12-14/hr job with benefits is my guess.

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Even if it were a $16-18/hr the number of good dealers would decrease. A very good dealer who keeps the game moving (and it tipped well) can deal 40 hands an hour @ dealing 75% utilization which is $30 per hour.

Another question is "what is the optimal pay to that casinos should pay dealers in order to maximize their profit"?

My guess is that casinos wouldn't even do the math nessesary to analyze this question and would just pay the dealers whatever they could get away with. Probably $15 an hour.