QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK

[00Snitch]

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Boz is right, but if you don't get it, for some people a more intuitive thought process is you don't add the probabilities of the two events (hitting on the turn or river) together because you have to discount the probability you hit them both, i.e. the union of the probabilities.

Thus: (8/47) + (8/46) - ((8/47)*(8/46)) = 31.45%


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OK, I'm getting really nitty here over a couple of percent (or maybe I'm being maths dumb again...), but don't you not care if you hit on the turn and river?

So, if you hit on the turn, great, we don't care what comes on the river (disregarding redraws). If we miss on the turn, but hit on the river, that is just as good?

Also, if that second term is the chance of hitting on the turn and river, shouldn't it be ((8/47)*(7/47))?

I'm not being nitty for the sake of it, I just don't know this stuff well. What am I missing?