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#6
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[ QUOTE ]
I would almost never invest anything close to 10% of my BR on one SNG, even with a fairly large perceived edge. This is because I gamble for over 90%+ of my living, and I place such negative value on losing all my assets that I'm willing to go pretty far to ensure that doesn't happen. [/ QUOTE ] Non sequitur. Your reason is part of the assumptions of the bankroll management models. Kelly's work assumes that going broke is infinitely bad. So, you need to have another reason to justify not ever buying in for Let's suppose you normally toss coins for $10 with an edge of 1%. Let's suppose you feel adequately bankrolled with $5000, but you wouldn't with only $1000. How much of that $5000 would you be willing to bet as a 3:2 favorite? How much would you be happy to get in with AA against a random hand, let's say as a 6:1 favorite? I don't see how to answer these consistently without using math, and the math says that the edge you have matters a lot. [ QUOTE ] Anytime you base decisions that involve putting risk aversion into a number based purely on plugging numbers into an equation, you're not gonna get a prefect answer. [/ QUOTE ] That looks like an irrational distrust of mathematics. It's good to understand something so well that you can model it mathematically. Why would you trust the answer more if you fail to quantify something? I hope you are trying to say something else. |
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